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Five Years Before Office Space Market Recovers?

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In  a recent Blog post by James Quinn, a senior director of strategic planning for a major university, the time period of the office space market recovery is questioned and predicted to be much longer than many industry experts predict.  The main reason for his prediction is his belief that consumers are beginning to "Deleverage," spending less, and it will cause major changes in the economy over the next decade.

"They have no choice. Boomers have come to the shocking realization that you can’t get wealthy or retire by borrowing and spending."

His thoughts on the Office Space market:

"The current office vacancy rate of 17.5% is the highest since 1993 and is just below the all-time high 18.7% in 1992. The WSJ has concluded, with no data or analysis, that the vacancy rate has bottomed. As the employment data proves, companies are not hiring employees. New companies are not being formed. Government mandates and regulations regarding healthcare and uncertainty about taxes will keep the formation of new small companies at a minimum. Conglomerates continue to ship jobs overseas. Part 2 of this Depression will drive more companies out of business. Office vacancies will remain at record levels for the next five years."

On the other side the Wall Street Journal came out with an article, Signs of Recovery For Office Market, last week that predicts that the office space market has bottomed out and that we are starting see some stabilization in the market. They also state that the recovery will be a slow one, but don't define how long that could be.

For us at OfficeFinder.com, over the past 3 weeks we have seen a surge in closed deal reporting in the neighborhood of 2 - 3 times over those of the previous several months. These reports come through our network of office space tenant representatives and executive suite members. We are hoping this continues and identifies the start of the small business recovery.

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Commercial Real Estate , Lease Negotiations , Office Rental , Office Space Negotiations , Office Vacancy Rate

1 response to “Five Years Before Office Space Market Recovers?”

  1. James Osgood Says:
    I believe that we will start to see more activity from here on out. Our biggest problem is uncertainty. As brokers we can make money in a down market and we can make money in an up market, but can't in an uncertain market. I am hoping the elections will settle things down so that small businesses will start making decisions.