{"id":6163,"date":"2022-05-06T09:14:50","date_gmt":"2022-05-06T16:14:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.officefinder.com\/officeblog\/?p=6163"},"modified":"2026-03-14T09:50:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T16:50:35","slug":"will-back-working-office-new-york-city","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.officefinder.com\/officeblog\/will-back-working-office-new-york-city\/","title":{"rendered":"When will we be back working in \u201cthe office” in New York City?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dispatch from New York City
\nGuest Post By George E. Grace<\/a>, President, G.E. Grace & Company, Inc.<\/h3>\n

The big question for all of us individually and collectively (i.e. companies and organization) in New York City is when will we be back working in \u201cthe office?\u201d\u00a0 I\u2019m talking about the office that is not 10\u2019 (or less) from your bedroom.<\/p>\n

One of the very good trackers on the level of how many of us are going back to the office is Kastle Systems\u2019 Back to Work Barometer.\u00a0 You can find that at https:\/\/www.kastle.com\/safety-wellness\/getting-america-back-to-work\/<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 In New York, we have reached 37.4% of potential individual swipes on entry security registers\u2014people entering a building\u2014and reporting to the office.\u00a0 These systems are mostly in Class A buildings.\u00a0 For me as a commercial real estate broker, that is a paltry statistic. \u00a0For politicians who are looking to revive the economy, it is a flashing warning sign.<\/p>\n

The return to office is grinding slowly higher with occasional setbacks and accelerations.\u00a0 According to Kastle Systems over the last two years swipes have gone from a low of 14.6% to a high of 38% of the average pre-COVID baseline. \u00a0If we did a straight-line projection of those statistics, we would be at full occupancy sometime in mid-2028!<\/p>\n

The consensus is not to expect such a prolonged period back to full occupancy.\u00a0 The real concern is that occupancy levels will not reach the pre-pandemic level for many, many years, if not decades to come.\u00a0 The reason for this concern is not only the pandemic, but demographics, political mismanagement, and technology.<\/p>\n

Technology has made it much easier to communicate face-to-face using Zoom, Microsoft Meetings, etc.\u00a0 This has facilitated business and made it much more efficient in many ways.\u00a0 I don\u2019t have to travel to meet a prospective client, I can meet via the web.\u00a0 While not perfect and less personal, it is sufficient in many instances.<\/p>\n

Another reason for the slow return to pre-pandemic occupancy levels is that baby boomers are reaching retirement age, and many are accelerating the decision to retire.\u00a0 This reduces the number of workers and the demand for office space.\u00a0 Many older workers find the commute for an hour or two each way unnecessary if you can work from your home.\u00a0 Anecdotally, I miss the camaraderie, but I am way more productive at home.\u00a0\u00a0 Millennials, which make up the largest population cohort, see the advantage of working from home<\/em> as well.\u00a0 If this group decides that the office is optional, then the office space industry is in for some major problems.\u00a0\u00a0 Most of the millennials have not yet hit their highest earning years\u2014there is a lull in the population between baby boomers (1946 to 1964) and millennials (1981 to 1996)\u2014part of the anemic office demand may just be this interim between these two large population groups.<\/p>\n

The pandemic obviously created fear of going to the office, but politicians from all spectrums, have added to the fear through confusing, nonscientific political decision making. Politicians\u2019 poor handling of crime and the subsequent perception that crime is uncontrolled has added a level of insecurity and fear for the office worker resulting in a further desire to avoid what is perceived to be dangerous commute and instead work from home.<\/p>\n

The result, so far, is a vacancy rate that went from 9.1%, in the first quarter of 2020, according to Costar, to a rate over 13% which represents in New York City an 8,000,000 square foot increase in inventory.<\/p>\n

The conclusion that can be drawn from this information is that the nature of office work and where it is accomplished is changing dramatically.\u00a0 The pace of that change is accelerating.\u00a0 It seems clear that a flexible, adaptive approach to office development and leasing will be required to meet the challenges in the office market going forward.<\/p>\n

George Grace<\/a> has been an OfficeFinder member serving the needs of businesses looking for office space in New York City for over 20 years. His team creates options for their clients so they can maximize their leverage over landlords which allows their clients to get the best possible deal in the right location.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dispatch from New York City Guest Post By George E. Grace, President, G.E. Grace & Company, Inc. The big question for all of us individually and collectively (i.e. companies and organization) in New York City is when will we be back working in \u201cthe office?\u201d\u00a0 I\u2019m talking about the office that is not 10\u2019 (or\u2026 Read More »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6165,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[339,184,209],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-strategy","category-manhattan-office-space","category-new-york-city-office-space"],"yoast_head":"\r\nWhen will we be back working in \u201cthe office" in New York City?<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The big question for all of us individually and collectively in New York City is when will we be back working in \u201cthe office?\u201d\u00a0\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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